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Pronounced upturn ahead
Hugo P Matre
Schjødt
Oslo
Hugo P Matre (Bio)
The global financial crisis has dominated the news for a long time. From sub-prime mortgages in 2007, to the downgraded US debt status in 2011, the latest crisis point is unlikely to be the last. However, Norway represents an exception, as the country has suffered a comparatively short and shallow recession with unemployment only rising from 2.5% to 3.5% despite record immigration, primarily from EU countries. Norway has no national debt; indeed it has one of the world's three largest sovereign funds (NKr 3000 billion). Following a year and a half of moderate developments in the Norwegian economy, the government bureau, Statistics Norway, has stated that significantly higher growth is expected. This development is expected to be driven by a broad increase in domestic demand.
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"Norwegian banks faired pretty well, no instability in the system and some very large deals," says one partner, "the banks are back in business and the deals are getting very large". The market has seen a shift away from UK and Dutch led financing to pure Norwegian led deals with DnB NOR and Nordea being "by far the biggest"....
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"Norwegian banks faired pretty well, no instability in the system and some very large deals," says one partner, "the banks are back in business and the deals are getting very large". The market has seen a shift away from UK and Dutch led financing to pure Norwegian led deals with DnB NOR and Nordea being "by far the biggest".
"We can do it here, why need London," asks one lawyer. "Nordic banks have been so strong, we're no longer seeing syndicated loans led by international banks with Norwegian banks involved, Norwegian banks are now handling loans completely in a club form," says a partner, adding that "things are being fully underwritten by Norwegian banks".
The reason for the strength in the domestic banking system is because, in the words of one commentator, the "economy has been very sound and predictable".
Private equity (PE) has been active, with consecutive deals in 2010 and 2011 marking milestones for the largest private equity deal so far. "PE is definitely back in the market," says a partner, "two or three years ago banks would not touch the PE funds... now it is back to normal business, easier to get PE financing and financing in general." "Definitely picking up again," says another, "much more acquisition, banks have a lot more appetite and it looks like there are sellers as well, and PE firms are having to exit as they can only keep things on books for five years."
Elsewhere, firms note that a "wall of debt" is coming up: "Many companies secured financing in 2007 with five year maturities and they are coming up for refinancing".
Project financing continues to be driven by, and often referred to as, shipping and offshore. Solar energy has been attracting some financing while public-private partnerships (PPP) have not been used widely for the reason being that "the economy has been very strong" so there is no need for it, and that the current Labour government does not look too favourably on PPPs.
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Norway bucked the European trend and through 2010 and 2011 saw lots of activity in the capital markets, especially on the equity side. Firms completed a series of large IPOs in late 2010 on the Oslo Stock Exchange, among the most significant being listings of Statoil Fuel & Retail and insurer Gjensidige Forsikring; and IPOs continued into 2011 with the latest coming from Aker Drilling in March 2011....
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Norway bucked the European trend and through 2010 and 2011 saw lots of activity in the capital markets, especially on the equity side. Firms completed a series of large IPOs in late 2010 on the Oslo Stock Exchange, among the most significant being listings of Statoil Fuel & Retail and insurer Gjensidige Forsikring; and IPOs continued into 2011 with the latest coming from Aker Drilling in March 2011.
The debt markets were also busy and saw the highest high-yield bond ever issued in the country (by Golden Close Marine Corp), as well as a stream of bond and convertible bond issuances. Innovation was not far away as firms also handled the country's first ever securitisation under Norwegian law.
"It has been very hectic so far," says one local lawyer, "there have been lots of IPOs and overnight placements." (The national press coined the term "takeover fever" to refer to the activity in the equity markets in late 2010.) "I would have expected the financial crisis to have been harder and longer, it really didn't happen," says one partner. "In the main Norway is not impacted by that cycle [financial crisis], not heavily affected by international trends and stays in its 'cosy little world', the most affected have been M&A and capital markets," says another.
However, the activity was not completely straight forward and one firm notes that "there has been a lot of starting and stopping... [and] there have also been some notable failings in bonds". There were also signs in Spring 2011 that the tide might be turning, with one lawyer noting that the market was "experiencing some sort of a slowdown. The speculation is that a lot of investors have been expanding in oil and drilling rigs and now it is coming to the end of a cycle". According to another, the market has been "very good, especially for the drilling rig sector where there was an open window for about four or five months and we saw numerous IPOs, but now the window has closed and it is awful".
Partners argue that outside shipping and oil it has been much harder for companies to raise capital. "Equity is very energy driven, very high oil prices dragging all prices up," says one.
It is hard to gauge the significance of the lull in the market in mid-2011. Some call it "a little stop", and even the most high profile pulled IPO, that of property company IT Fornebu in May 2011, does not give any clear indications with consensus being that the IPOs failure to launch was because the company "had very high price expectations, didn't really need the money so didn't want to drop the price" and not the conditions.
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The M&A market has been active in Norway. One of the main drivers of transactions has been the private equity (PE) sector, which "has slowly started picking up again, even though auctions are more drawn out," says a partner....
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The M&A market has been active in Norway. One of the main drivers of transactions has been the private equity (PE) sector, which "has slowly started picking up again, even though auctions are more drawn out," says a partner. "There are some secondary sales, one private equity house to another, and industrial sales."
Another partner is slightly more optimistic about private equity but still discerns a level of caution in the way that firms invest: "Private equity is now consistently working on divestments and investments, they will buy good projects not just any project, it is a discriminating market, not like it was in 2007." Another declares that "leveraged finance is back, banks doing well and have solid balance sheets".
The most active sectors for PE have been in technology, telecommunications and computing, with PE firms such as EQT and KKR purchasing companies including Visma and Hafslund Fibernett. Technology in general saw significant outside PE investment. The other main driver in the market has been industrial M&A, and one of the big highlights was the first ever acquisition by a Chinese state owned company (China National Bluestar) of a Norwegian industrial company (Elkem).
"We have seen Chinese investments in shipping, solar energy, IT and telecoms, as well as some investments from India and even from Singapore," says a partner. These areas as well as real estate have all been active. "Anything related to energy is always important, and also the hydro sector is big while renewables are still developing," says a partner.
On the negative side, there are signs that some sectors are starting to weaken. "Shipping and offshore are struggling a bit now, they are weaker and more affected, while the whole solar energy market has more or less collapsed as it was heavily based on subsidies and there is now a complete re-pricing," according to a commentator.
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