In February 2011 after weeks of protests calling for political reform and an elected government the country's prime minister was replaced, with another chosen by Jordan's King Abdullah. The move to placate demonstrators may have worked in the short term, but lawyers did not feel this government will be grappling with unemployment and the country's expanding budget deficit: "It's focus is really not on economics but rather on political issues....
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In February 2011 after weeks of protests calling for political reform and an elected government the country's prime minister was replaced, with another chosen by Jordan's King Abdullah. The move to placate demonstrators may have worked in the short term, but lawyers did not feel this government will be grappling with unemployment and the country's expanding budget deficit: "It's focus is really not on economics but rather on political issues. I would expect that they wouldn't rank high on their priorities. Although the budget deficit is growing so I expect it to be an issue for them towards the end of the year." One move certainly designed to address the country's economy is the government's application to join the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which, if successful, would make it eligible for financial support that may be essential given its growing $2 billion budget deficit.
Heavily dependent on foreign investment, Jordan continued to be affected by the ripples of the crisis in the GCC states in 2010. "It was a bit slower this year. I'm talking 2010, 2009, it was a bit slower there were less acquisitions. We still did well but there was about a 15% drop in work," observes the managing partner of one leading firm. A lack of viable finance was one of the key difficulties but lawyers also remark that they fear they have seen the end of privatisation deals. "I think mainly it's the economic situation, people couldn't get the funding. Our work is mainly working for investors that are coming to Jordan and there are less acquisitions and the privatisation have stopped," says one partner.
"It's been dry", is one lawyer's view of the country's capital markets. Work in this area is virtually non-existent but, although an isolated incident, the government made its first foray into foreign markets last year listing a $750 million Eurobond on the LSE in November 2010.
2011 has provided a welcome contrast to the post-crisis years in Jordan, with a notable increase in M&A activity and new lending. "This year has been amazing, the beginning of 2011 we have had a lot of work," says one partner, while another explains: "The financial market is becoming a bit more relaxed so we're seeing more lending." The activity is not reflected across the market and some lawyers remain sceptical. "I wouldn't say it's a sign that things are picking up in Jordan," says one. "We have three or four acquisitions where the foreign company is acquiring interests from another foreign company rather than acquiring from locals - it's not really a sign that more investments are coming in, it's just that foreign investments are changing hands." There is also concern that this improvement will be short lived after the 'Arab Spring'. "The political situation all around us will make investors cautious this year. Although we have a lot of work right now, I would expect the second half of the year to slow down a bit," says one lawyer.
On the projects side, there are a several multibillion deals outstanding, among them the new Aqaba Port, an oil and gas refinery and a national rail project. The deals are moving, albeit slowly: "The legal advisory should have been awarded at the end of January but we're still waiting for feedback. We are working on the Port, we are representing a shortlisted bidder for a government tender for a wind farm," says one partner. The rail project, which would link Iraq and Jordan is also progressing and it is currently with the council of ministers and awaiting the formation of a steering committee. "The government has budgeted a subsidy for the railway project. It's a major deal a lot work should come out of it. They say it's a probably like a $2 billion project," says one partner.
A point of interest for investors is the formation of a single Development Zones Commission, a single government entity tasked with regulating the country's free zones.
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